In our detailed How To Bet On The NBA guide, we'll show you how to improve your chances of making money betting on the NBA. Regardless of which NBA odds you like to bet on, whether they be NBA betting lines, point totals or moneylines, our NBA betting guide will teach you the fundamentals to profitable NBA betting.
Learning how to bet on the NBA is the same as learning to bet on any other sport, league or tournament. It requires patience, persistence and discipline. The bettingexpert How To Bet On The NBA guide will show you the way to consistent returns betting on the NBA.
NBA Season Schedule 2016/17
|October 25, 2016||NBA Regular Season Begins|
|January 12, 2017||NBA Game in Mexico City|
|January 12, 2017||NBA Game in London|
|January 14, 2017||NBA Game in Mexico City|
|February 17-19, 2017||All Star Weekend in New Orleans|
|April 12, 2017||NBA Regular Season Concludes|
|April 15, 2017||NBA Playoffs Begin|
|May 1, 2017||NBA Conference Semi Finals Begin|
|May 16, 2017||NBA Conference Finals Begin|
|May 16, 2017||NBA Draft Lottery|
|June 1, 2017||NBA Finals Begin|
|June 22, 2017||NBA Draft|
What You Will Find In This Betting Guide
- How To Bet On The NBA: An Introduction
- History Of The NBA
- How The NBA Works
- NBA Odds Explained
- NBA Betting Explained
- NBA Value Bets
- How To Bet On The NBA And Win
1. How To Bet On The NBA: An Introduction
While NBA betting may not attract the same level of interest as other sports such as European football and the NFL, the sheer number of games played over the course of a NBA season sees millions wagered each season.
Thanks to the league's incredible popularity both in the US and across the world, bookmakers offer a wide range of NBA odds throughout the season. NBA betting lines (handicaps, point spreads) are the most popular way to bet on the NBA, while NBA game point totals and head to head moneyline bets see thousands wagered daily during the course of a NBA regular season. There are also an increasingly popular number of NBA exotic and alternative markets to bet on.
As with any other sport or league, making money on the NBA is not easy. But developing an understanding of how to bet on the NBA, the range of NBA odd available and how to exploit them is well worth your time. Due to the number of games played across a NBA season, knowing how to bet on the NBA and make money will see your generate fantastic returns each year.
Upcoming NBA Fixtures
2. History Of The NBA
It may surprise many NBA fans to learn that the league was first formed by owners of major ice hockey arenas in both the US and Canada. The league was originally known as the BAA (Basketball Association of America) and began play in 1946 with the first game played in Toronto between the Toronto Huskies and the New York Knickerbockers (now referred to as the Knicks).
Through the late 1940's, the BAA absorbed clubs from rival leagues the National Basketball League (NBL) and American Basketball League (ABL). In 1949 the BAA absorbed the remaining clubs of the NBL and changed the league name from the BAA to the NBA, National Basketball Association.
By the mid 1950's the NBA was comprised of just eight clubs, with many of the former NBA teams merger or becoming defunct. Each of these clubs remain in the league today, although many have relocated and changed mascots.
List Of Recent NBA Champions
|Year||Champions||Runners Up||Series Score|
|1999||San Antonio||New York||4-1|
|2002||LA Lakers||New Jersey||4-0|
|2003||San Antonio||New Jersey||4-2|
3. How The NBA Works
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is the elite basketball league of not only the US but the world. The league is comprised of 30 team with each team playing 82 regular season games each season, with 41 played at home and 41 played away (on the road).
NBA Conferences & Divisions
The 30 NBA teams are divided into two 15 team conference, the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference. Each NBA conference is comprised of three divisions with five teams in each division.
As with each NBA conference, each division is based on a geographical region. The Eastern Conference's three divisions are the Atlantic, Central and Southeast while the Western Conference's three divisions are the Pacific, Southwest and Northwest.
NBA Eastern Conference Divisions
|NBA Atlantic||NBA Central||NBA Southeast|
|Boston Celtics||Chicago Bulls||Atlanta Hawks|
|Brooklyn Nets||Cleveland Cavaliers||Charlotte Hornets|
|New York Knicks||Detroit Pistons||Miami Heat|
|Philadelphia 76ers||Indiana Pacers||Orlando Magic|
|Toronto Raptors||Milwaukee Bucks||Washington Wizards|
NBA Western Conference Divisions
|NBA Pacific||NBA Southwest||NBA Northwest|
|Golden State Warriors||Dallas Mavericks||Denver Nuggets|
|Los Angeles Clippers||Houston Rockets||Minnesota Timberwolves|
|Los Angeles Lakers||Memphis Grizzlies||Oklahoma City Thunder|
|Phoenix Suns||New Orleans Pelicans||Portland Trailblazers|
|Sacramento Kings||San Antonio Spurs||Utah Jazz|
How The NBA Schedule Is Determined
Each NBA team plays 82 regular season games, with 41 played at home and the remaining 41 played on the road.
Teams play each other club in their division four times, two at home and two away, for a total of 16 games on a team's schedule.
Teams also play four games against six out of division conference opponents, for a total of 24 games on a team's schedule. Teams play three games against the remaining four out of division conference opponents, for a total of 12 games.
Lastly, teams play each team in the other conference twice, once at home and once away, for a total of 30 games of a team's schedule.
Composition Of NBA Team Schedule
|Division Opponents at home||8|
|Division Opponents away||8|
|Other Division within Conference at home||18|
|Other Division within Conference away||18|
|Out of Conference at home||15|
|Out of Conference away||15|
Current NBA Standings
How The NBA Playoffs Work
The NBA playoffs are composed of 16 teams, with eight clubs from each conference reaching the playoffs.
The eight playoff teams in each conference are composed of the three division winners and the five teams with the best records that did not win their division. These eight teams are seeded by their win/loss record 1st through to 8th
NBA Playoffs First Round
The NBA playoffs begin with the opening round. This round sees the following matchups in best of seven game series:
- 1st vs 8th
- 2nd vs 7th
- 3rd vs 6th
- 4th vs 5th
NBA Conference Finals
The second round sees the winners of each series face off in best of seven game series known as the Conference Semi Finals.
The winners of each semi final series then meet in the Conference Finals with the winners advancing to the NBA Finals, again a best of seven game series. The winner of the NBA Finals series is crowned NBA champions for that season.
4. NBA Odds Explained
NBA odds are displayed in three popular formats. These are:
Many of you reading this article will be familiar with Moneyline (American) odds. However for the purposes of this NBA betting guide, we will display odds in the decimal format. Why? Because they are much easier to work with than American and Fractional odds.
As with any sports, understanding betting odds is crucial to profitable NBA betting. If you do not understand how betting odds are calculated and the probabilities they express, you're going to have a difficult time being a successful NBA bettor.
The video below provides an easy introduction to betting odds and their implied probabilities.
Read More About Calculating Betting Odds
To learn more about betting odds and how to convert them to other popular formats, please read our guide to converting betting odds.
5. NBA Betting Explained
In this section we will discuss how to bet on the NBA and the diverse range of NBA odds available at virtually every bookmaker in the industry. As you most likely assume, there are many different ways to bet on the NBA. From the more traditional NBA bet types to the more exotic, bookmakers everywhere provide you with a deep menu of markets to exploit through the NBA season. Here we will look at the most popular NBA odds.
NBA Handicap Betting Explained
Let's start with the most popular and most traditional way of betting on NBA games. This is most commonly referred to as a point spread, but goes by other names such as the betting line or handicap.
So what is a NBA point spread?
A NBA point spread is an estimated final margin that a bookmaker will list for an upcoming NBA game. Bookmakers regard this 'margin' as a 50/50 bet in that they believe there is a 50% chance that the actual final margin of the game will end on one side of their margin as it does the other. When you bet on a NBA point spread you are predicting which side of this margin the game will finish on.
How to bet on NBA basketball point spread
Let's take a look at an example. Let's say that the Indiana Pacers are playing the Brooklyn Nets. The point spread for this game is listed at bookmaker Ladbrokes as:
So what does this mean?
To begin with, the Pacers are the favourites as they have the minus handicap while the Nets are the underdogs with the plus handicap.
In this game, the bookmakers have determined that the final margin will be either side of Indiana by 8.5 points. As a bettor, you can bet that the final margin will be either side of this line.
So if you think that Indiana will win by more than 8.5 points (1.e 9 points or more) you place a bet on Indiana -8.5 points.
Conversely, if you think that Brooklyn will win the game or at the very least will lose by fewer that 8.5 points (8 points or less), you place a bet on Brooklyn +8.5 points.
Determining If Your NBA Spread Bet Is A Winner
So how do you know if your NBA point spread bet was a winner? It's simple to calculate. Let's say that the final score of the game is Indiana 101, Brooklyn 90.
If you had been on the favourite, in this case, Indiana -8.5, you subtract 8.5 points from their final score. In this example, that would create an adjusted final score of Indiana 92.5, Brooklyn 90. With their handicap subtracted from their final score, Indiana still wins the game. In this case, your bet on Indiana -8.5 would be a winning bet.
However, if you had bet on the underdog, in this case Brooklyn +8.5, you add 8.5 points to their final score, giving us an adjusted final score of Indiana 101, Brooklyn 98.5. In this example, even with their handicap added Brooklyn still lose the game. In this case, your bet on Brooklyn +8.5 would be a losing bet.
When a NBA team wins a point spread bet, this is often referred to as that team 'covering the spread'.
Always Take The Best NBA Odds
Odds on NBA point spreads vary from bookmaker to bookmaker. Most bookmakers however offer NBA point spread odds between 1.90 and 1.95. If you're keen to bet on NBA point spreads often, we would recommend you bet with a bookmaker that offers odds of at least 1.92 for this market.
What is a good strike rate for NBA spread betting? If you were to bet on NBA point spreads randomly over the course of a NBA season, you will most likely have a strike rate of around 50% and over the course of a number of years, randomly betting on NBA points spreads should see you hit bang on 50%.
The table below shows the strike rate required in order to start making a profit betting on NBA point spreads.
Betting Line Win % Needed To Make A Profit
|Odds||Win % Required To Profit||Win % Required For 5% ROI|
If you can hit a strike rate of around 54%, you'll be generating fantastic profits. That may sound easy, but it's a difficult strike rate to achieve. If you can achieve it, your betting bankroll will be swelling in no time.
How To Bet NBA Over Under
Given its high scoring nature, another popular NBA bet type is Over Under basketball betting, also known as point totals, or just totals.
What is a NBA Over Under bet?
While point spreads can be a little confusing to the unintiated, Over Under betting is more straightforward. In this case, a bookmaker sets a line on what they believe will be the total combined number of points scored in a NBA game, with a 50% chance that the game will see a total number of points scored either side of this line.
So for example, below we can see the Over Under point total for a NBA game between the Chicago Bulls and the Philadelphia 76ers, with odds listed at bookmaker Winner Sports.
We can see that Winner Sports believes there is a 50% chance that the total number of points scored in this game will be either side of 203.5 points.
In this example, if we bet on Over 203.5 points, we need the total number of points scored in the game to be at the very least 204. Meanwhile, if we had bet on Under 203.5 points, we need the combined number of points to be at the very most 203 points.
Similar to NBA point spreads, bookmakers will offer you odds between 1.90 and 1.95 for NBA Over Under bets.
Many bookmakers now also offer point totals for individual teams. In this bet type, you can bet whether or not a team will score greater or fewer than a set number of points. Here you are not concerned with the total number of points scored in the game, but only the number of points one of the teams will score.
How To Bet On NBA Moneylines
Lastly, let's look at NBA moneyline bets. A moneyline bet is simply a head to head bet in which you place a bet on which team you think will win the game. This bet type includes over time which is common in NBA games.
Below we can see a NBA moneyline head to head market with odds listed by bookmaker Paddy Power for a game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Utah Jazz.
Again, this is fairly straightforward. In this example Utah are the favourites at odds of 1.71 while Atlanta are at odds of 2.17.
The popularity of NBA moneyline bets is their simplistic nature. There are no point spreads or betting lines involved. All you need to do is predict who you think is going to win the game. That's it.
So in our example, if you believe the Atlanta Hawks are going to win, you bet on Atlanta at odds of 2.17. If on the other hand you think that Utah Jazz is going to win the game, then you bet on Utah at odds of 1.71.
How To Bet On NBA Futures And Outrights
Another popular way to bet on the NBA is betting on futures and outright markets. This typically involves betting on who will win either:
- NBA Championship Winner
- Eastern Conference Winner
- Western Conference Winner
- Division Winners
- NBA Most Valuable Player
At the time of publishing, we can see that the Golden State Warriors were favourites to win the NBA Championship at odds of 1.83 while the Cleveland Cavaliers were at odds of 4.25.
Every NBA futures and outright markets works the same way. You bet on which team or player you think is going to win the championship, conference, division or award. If they do, your bet is a winner.
The popularity of NBA futures bets is that they keep you interested in the league day in day out. Even if you do not have a bet on a game that day, you're still keen to see if the teams you have bet on are doing well.
Other Popular NBA Odds
Thanks to the explosion in online betting, bookmakers now offer a deep menu of NFL odds to bet on. The most popular of these additional markets are:
Additional NBA Game Markets
|Alternative Point Spreads|
|First Quarter Winner|
|First Half Winner|
There are also a number of statistical betting markets and odds available. These include:
Additional NBA Statistical Markets
|Individual player points|
|Individual player rebounds|
|Individual player assists|
Where To Bet On NBA Games?
Every bookmaker in the industry lists odds for NBA games. For your NBA betting we recommend the following bookmakers. Click the logo to read about their current new customer bonus offer.
Detailed Bookmaker Reviews
To find the best bookmakers for your NBA betting, please refer to our list of detailed bookmaker reviews.
6. NBA Value Bets
As with any sport, successful NBA betting is about finding value bets. What is a value bet?
To put it succinctly, a value bet is where you strongly believe that the outcome is greater than the probability implied in the betting odds available. A simple example is that of a coin toss. Let's say we have been offered odds of 2.30 on a coin toss landing on tails. This is a value bet. Why? Because the chances of the coin landing on tails is 50% while the odds were are being offered have an implied probability of 43.5%.
Let's consider an example of a NBA game. Let's say the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Houston Rockets. We strongly believe given our analysis that the Lakers are a 40% chance of winning the game. We are being given odds of 3.20 for a Lakers win. Is this a value bet? Yes it is because we believe there is a 40% chance of the Lakers winning while the odds we are are being offered have an implied probability of 31.25%.
Read More About Value Betting
Understanding the concept of value and value betting is key to profitable NBA betting. To learn more about value betting, please read our guide to identifying value bets.
7. How To Bet On The NBA And Win
As we've made clear, your success as a NBA bettor boils down to one thing and that is your capacity to find value bets. This is true across the board, no matter what NBA odds and markets you are betting on. Being a profitable NBA bettor relies on consistently finding betting value and learning how to bet on basketball and win comes down to this crucial task.
How To Bet On The NBA And Always Win
It's surprising to learn that many new to NBA betting believe that it's possible to learn how to bet on basketball and win every time. Many believe there's a way to bet on the NBA and win if not all of the time, but most of the time. While this would be great, unfortunately it is folly. There is no foolproof way to bet on the NBA. There is no NBA betting system that will see you hit a strike rate of 80% on your point spread bets, or 70% on your NBA totals bets. This is just not going to happen. So do not be fooled by websites claiming to have a secret NBA betting strategy or system that will deliver you winners day in day out.
Yes, it would be fantastic if we had possession of a guaranteed NBA betting system. But there is no such thing. Just like any sport, developing a NBA betting strategy demands dedication, strict discipline and most of all, experience in betting NBA markets.
How To Bet On The NBA: A Ten Step Guide
In this section, we will show you how you can enhance your overall profitability betting on NBA games. We will show you step by step how you can start betting like a true expert and develop a winning NBA betting strategy.
- Bet Only When There Is Value
- Be Prepared To Learn
- Start By Betting The NBA Teams You Are Familiar With
- Bet The NBA Markets You Know
- Apply Sound Money Management
- Keep A Record Of Your NBA Betting
- Assess NBA Team Performance Accurately
- Mark The NBA Schedule
- Follow NBA Tipsters
- Have Multiple Bookmaker Accounts
7.1 Bet Only When There Is Value
OK, we get it, by now you're probably tired of hearing it, but let us say it again – success betting on NBA games is all about identifying betting value. If you bet on the NBA with no regard for the concept of value or value betting, you are just going to lose money time and time again.
Identifying betting value in the NBA or any other sport takes a great deal of time. But in time and with much experience, you will begin to identify betting value in NBA games much easier than when you first began. In fact, with hard earned experience, you'll often look down the list of the next day's NBA games and see two or three value prospects immediately jump out at you.
We discussed NBA value betting earlier in this betting guide. If you did not read it, please take a read of it now before progressing.
7.2 Be Prepared To Learn
This is a difficult lesson for many inexperienced bettors to learn. When you begin betting on a particular sport, it's because you already enjoy watching that sport. In most cases you'll consider yourself a keen observer of the league. You know the teams, you know the players, you know it all.
But let's make it clear. There is a difference between possessing a deep understanding of the NBA and possessing deep understanding of NBA betting markets. Of course, having a thorough knowledge of basketball and the NBA is a great start for any successful NBA bettor. But it's only a foundation. Profitable NBA betting requires that you understand the betting markets you intend to bet on. Understanding the NBA and understanding how to bet on basketball and win are two different things and it's crucial you do not confuse the two.
Gain Experience And A Deeper Understanding Of NBA Betting Markets
The task of the inexperienced NBA bettor is to take the knowledge you have of the league and the game of basketball and adapt it to related NBA betting markets. This takes time and patience, but in the end and with experience, you will discover a new found knowledge and a profound understanding how betting markets work and ultimately, how to identify betting value.
Think of it this way. It's generally easy to determine if a NBA game is going to be a high scoring one. But will there be enough points scored to cover the over under basketball line? Likewise, it's easy to say a particular NBA team in great form at home against a terrible team is likely to win the game. But are they more or less likely to win the game than what the odds on offer suggest?
The point is simple. When it comes to sports betting, humility is a great ally. If you want to be a successful NBA bettor, be prepared to learn.
Or check out how best nba tipters do it here and learn from them.
7.3 Start By Betting The NBA Teams You Are Familiar With
If you're betting on the NBA for the first time, it's a great idea to begin betting on games involving the teams and/or divisions you are most familiar with. Yes, it would be great to start out betting on the league as a whole, but the best way to test yourself and to learn gradually is to bet on those teams you know best.
You probably follow a particular team more closely than others. You know their roster. You know their strengths and weaknesses. You know their tactical approach. You also probably have a intimate knowledge of the teams in their division. This all makes for a great start. Yes, you may want to jump into the deep end and start betting on every NBA game on the card. But stay patient. Begin by betting on games involving the teams you know best and work from there.
7.4 Bet The NBA Markets You Know
As we have already discussed, the most popular NBA betting markets are:
- Point spreads (betting lines, handicaps)
- Moneylines (head to head, match winner)
- Point Totals (over unders)
These are only the most popular. There are literally dozens of markets available for each NBA game of the season. But it's best to begin with these three markets as they are the most easily understood. Further, developing an understanding for these traditional markets will help you to approach and exploit more nuanced and exotic markets in the seasons to come.
In fact, the most profitable NBA bettors generally focus on one of these traditional markets. It's quite common for experienced NBA bettors to concern themselves only with points spreads, while some others focus only on points totals. If you want to be a successful NBA bettor, then specialise. Find which markets you are most in tune with, and exploit them.
7.5 Apply Sound Money Management
Yes, the key to long term NBA betting is finding value bets. But almost as important is the application of a consistent money management and staking strategy. What does this mean? It means that you must closely manage your betting bankroll and understand how much you should be staking on one bet.
Managing your bankroll and determining the ideal bet stake is serious business. If you're not taking either task seriously, then you're likely only going to lose money long term. Your staking strategy needs to be consistent and consistently applied to your bankroll. If you are wagering amounts on a whim with no consideration for betting value, you shouldn't be surprised when you discover you are losing money month after month.
Further, your betting bankroll should only be as much as you can afford to lose. Sure, we want, hope and expect to make money betting on the NBA. The issue is however, even if you have a great talent for identifying betting value, unless you're exploiting that value with the application of a considered staking strategy, you'll lose money. Identifying value in NBA games is crucial, but it is only half the task.
Read More About Staking Strategies
To learn more, please read our guide to bankroll management and our detailed guide to calculating the ideal bet stake using the Kelly Criterion.
7.6 Keep A Record Of Your NBA Betting
If you're reading this, we assume you want to become a serious NBA bettor. Every serious NBA bettor needs to keep accurate records of their NBA betting. And we mean detailed records. If you do not keep a record of your betting, then you are likely to lose money and will simply fail to learn from your mistakes.
Your record of NBA betting should include these details:
- Bet Type (market)
- Bet Details
- Your Stake
- Your Odds
- Your Profit/Loss
Keeping records provides you with the capacity to review your bet history. This review process is crucial to your development as a serious NBA bettor and your capacity to generate profits long term. In keeping records of your NBA bets, you can see which markets you are performing best in, which markets you are consistently losing money on and most importantly, see moments where poor discipline got the best of you. To put it simply, a detailed record of your NBA betting will increase your self awareness as a bettor and will help you understand your tendencies and habits, both good and bad.
NBA Betting Calculator Spreadsheet
To help you with this task we've created the bettingexpert NBA Betting Spreadsheet. You can download it now and read more about the spreadsheet below.
7.7 Assess NBA Team Performance Accurately
The task of identifying betting value comes down to one simple skill and that is, your ability to consistently and accurately assess team performance and potential. If you can become skilled in this task, you will be a profitable NBA bettor long term.
While that is all very inspirational, being able to consistently perform this task is no easy thing. Think about it this way. Bookmakers have some of the most capable analytical minds and tools at their disposal giving them the ability to compile what are for the most part, extremely accurate NBA odds.
The good news however, is that bookmakers do not get it right all of the time. Think about any NBA season. There are always two or three teams that nobody sees coming, teams that are consistently underrated for much of the season. Conversely there are teams that everybody overrates, bookmakers included. Being able to assess team potential and performance is about being able to identify those teams.
So how can you learn to assess NBA team performance accurately? There are a number of things to consider.
Home vs Away Form
This is always a hot topic of debate across a number of sports. Many pundits and analysts believe that a number of teams possess a distinct home field, or in the case of the NBA, home court advantage. Others argue that there is no distinct advantage for any team and that home court advantage is generally consistent across all teams in the NBA. Others argue that home court advantage is consistent but is also in decline.
Home field advantage in the NBA is worth around 2.3 points. What does this mean? If two NBA teams are considered to of equal talent, then the home team will be 2.3 points better simply because they are playing at home. When we think of home vs away potential, this amounts to a 4.6 point swing.
Let's take an example. The Detroit Pistons are playing the Chicago Bulls. On a neutral court, we consider the Pistons to be a 5 point better team. If the Pistons are playing at home, then we add 2.3 points to our neutral court estimated margin, making the Pistons a 7.3 point favourite on their home court. On the other hand, if the game is being played in Chicago, the Bulls will be a 2.3 better team. In this case we subtract 2.3 points from our estimated neutral court margin of a Detroit win by 5 points, meaning the Pistons will only be a 2.7 point favourite when playing the Bulls in Chicago.
Why do home teams have an advantage? There are a number of explanations for home court advantage in the NBA. The most promoted of these is that home crowd noise influences referee decision making in a very fundamental way. Referees are human (no seriously, they are) and as a result are just as easily influenced by “the mob” as any one of us. You've no doubt seen refs give home town calls when the crowd is up and making plenty of noise. It happens and for the most part, this is what explains home court advantage in the NBA.
Injuries and Roster Additions/Subtractions
If you know your NBA intimately, the start of the season can be your most profitable time. Why? Because possessing a detailed understanding of NBA rosters and off season additions and subtractions will help you identify which teams are likely to be underrated and which are likely to be overrated.
For example, a team may have added a high profile shooting guard to their line-up. This will excite the fans and TV pundits alike and see expectations rise for that team in the coming season. But what may go missing is that this same team lost two regularly used big men from their bench rotation. This won't grab the headlines, but the team's inability to now protect the rim as well as rebound in minutes where their starters require rest is going to diminish the team's prospects for the season. This will be lost on fans, pundits and potentially bookmakers. Understanding what wins basketball games and the importance or roles players can help you identify tremendous value early and well into the NBA season.
Similarly, the ability to accurately assess the impact of injuries is another way in which shrewd bettors can exploit NBA odds. This is particularly true again where there are injuries to key players with low profiles. Meanwhile, injuries to high profile players can be overestimated. Always remember that what is most important is the value of the replacement player. Sure, a team's super star small forward may be out for the next 5 games. In an example such as this, consider the potential of the player who will replace him. He may not have such a high profile, but he may be more than an adequate replacement.
A mystery for many in the sports world is how often teams of lesser talent cause trouble for their more highly touted opponents. This happens more often in the NBA perhaps than any other league, due largely to how often teams play each other, particularly division rivals. NBA divisional rivals know each other's squads, tendencies and tactical approaches intimately.
While some teams may have failings in many areas, often they posses a strength that counters a more highly fancied opponent's strength. Possessing a detailed understanding of both the game of basketball and NBA team rosters will provide you with plenty of value opportunities, giving you an insight into which inferior teams have the potential to make life difficult for their more talented opponents. These inferior teams may not win the game, but in such instances they are more than capable of covering the point spread.
Develop A NBA Betting System Or Betting Model
Developing a betting model to find value in NBA games is well worth your effort. Unlike other sports leagues such as the NFL where each seasons sees just 256 regular season games played, the NBA schedule has a total 1230 regular season games. This sheer number of games played makes the time in developing such a model for betting on NBA games worth the time and involvement.
While one NBA betting system and/or model may only consider point differential, there are other models that take a number of factors into account, looking at a broad range of data and statistics. Speaking broadly, most NBA betting models will take into account a selection of the following:
- Points For/Against
- Shooting Percentage For/Against
- Rebounds For/Against
- Points Per Possession For/Against
- Individual Player Point Differential Plus/Minus
Whichever NBA statistical categories you want to employ in your betting model, the goal of your model is the same as any other sports betting model – the accurately assess the potential of a given team in a given matchup and in so doing, determining if there is any betting value available to exploit in that matchup.
NBA Data Analyser
7.8 Mark The NBA Schedule
The NBA season is a marathon. While the NFL is often regarded as a sprint consisting of 16 regular season games, the NBA tasks every team with 82 games. The length of the NBA season not only means numerous betting opportunities virtually every day of the season, but it the demands of a NBA season provides shrewd bettors with opportunity to find value via what is often referred to as 'situational analysis'.
Situational analysis involves determining how a team is likely to perform in certain circumstances. For example:
- How does a particular club perform towards the end of a long road trip?
- How does a club perform playing back to back nights on the road?
- How do teams perform their first night on the road following a long run of home games?
There are many situations to consider. For this reason, before the season begins it's important to mark the NBA schedule for each team. Identify situations that are irregular for each club, situations where their performance may be influenced simply due to scheduling. Look for league wide trends based on historical data as well as trends for each team. For example, let's say the Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-12 against the spread in the final game of road trip of at least five games. While this trend may be a result of randomness, it's a trend to certainly keep in mind when the Timberwolves are closing out a road trip in the coming season.
Conducting situational analysis such as these can help you find value right through the NBA season.
7.9 Follow NBA Tipsters
Following NBA tipsters is another great way to generate profits betting on NBA games. Finding a stable of consistently profitable NBA tipsters will see you build your betting bankroll quickly and will relatively little fuss.
While that all sounds great, the problem of course is in finding tipsters you can trust. Any Google search for the term best NBA tipsters will present you with a long list of sites claiming to deliver reliable and most of all, profitable NBA tips. The fact is that most of these sites are fraudulent, asking unsuspecting bettors to hand over sizeable subscription fees to receive these 'gold plated' tips. Do not be fooled. And please, never pay for betting tips. You are more than likely going to lose money in betting account as well as your bank account paying ridiculous subscription fees.
The great news is that there are a number of profitable tipsters in the bettingexpert community, posting their NBA tips through the season. And what's best is that their tips are both verified and free. You can find each tipster's NBA record clearly displayed so you can choose who you want to follow this season and into the next.
bettingexpert's Best NBA Tipsters
See the top tipsters here
Follow Our NBA Tipsters
To see which tipsters have tips currently posted, visit our NBA tips page.
7.10 Have Multiple Bookmaker Accounts For Your NBA Betting
It might be convenient to have just one betting account for all your NBA betting. But the reality is that this is likely going to cost you money long term and can easily be the difference between making money as a NBA bettor and making a loss.
We recommend all NBA bettors have at the very least three bookmaker accounts. Having three bookmaker accounts will provide you with the flexibility you need, giving you the chance to take the best odds available on any NBA market.
Yes, it may seem only a slight difference when you take odds of 1.75 rather than the best odds available of 1.80, but over the course of a number of years, this slight difference can amount to thousands of dollars. Seriously. So make sure you have at least three bookmaker accounts for your NBA betting and take the best odds available always. (For a detailed analysis, please read our guide to bookmaker margins).
Where to bet on NBA games?
To discover the bookmakers best suited to your NBA betting, please refer to our list of detailed bookmaker reviews.